Abin da zai faru ga Yuro? A hasashen da na Yuro

Mutane da yawa ba su daina mamaki a kan abin da zai faru da Yuro a nan gaba. The m tattalin arziki halin da ake ciki a duniya da ke sa mutane su nemi hanyoyin da za a adana su tanadi, da kuma hira cikin kudin kasashen waje ne a matsayin daya daga cikin yiwu kwatance. Mun mayar da hankali ne a kan gaskiyar cewa masana ne a wani sauri yin tsinkaya a yanzu, tun mafi yawansu ba su a cikin watanni shida na karshe kasance daidai ba ne.

Ƙarfafa na dollar a kan Yuro

A watan Maris shekarar 2015, mafi manazarta ce da tabbatarwa daga cikin dollar da Yuro. Akwai tsinkaya cewa ta 2017 da Amurka kudin ne Mafi m tare da Turai daya. Duk da pullback, wanda za a iya gani da dukan Afrilu, halin da ake ciki ya ba tukuna stabilized. Don ce cewa korau ƙarfafa muhimmancin Yuro, a karshe ya canja, shi ne ma farkon.

A farkon watan Mayu da aka alama ga Turai kudin da aka fatauci a 1.1. Duniya hukumomin kamar Goldman Sachs, Barclays da BNP Paribas, ya bayyana cewa, "Turai" zai kai wannan farashin tag ne kawai karshen shekarar 2015. More kaffa da hasashen da aka ba da wakilan Wells Fargo, mayar da hankali a kan matakin 1.22. Za ka iya magana game da dual-yanayin labari. biyu yankunan gani, drop zuwa matakin na 2-hletnego m kuma tashi zuwa darajar 1.22.

Turai tattalin arzikin

A farkon rabin shekarar 2015, masana zata GDP girma da 1-2%. Domin Turai, wannan adadi za a iya daukan fiye da positive. Saurare zuwa wani m Yuro hasashen da ana tsammanin macroeconomic Manuniya. Wannan yawan marasa aikin yi a cikin 9.5%, wanda kwanan nan aka ranked kawai a biyu lambobi da kuma hauhawar farashin kaya a matakin 1%.

A fall na Yuro kan dollar kwararru dangantawa da mafi m ci gaban da tattalin arzikin Amurka na shekaru biyu. Duk da ana tsammanin ci gaban da Yuro a cikin gaba biyu shekaru, rabon da aka tilasta ta da yawa abubuwan yau. Yana za a iya ce don rage girma na masana'antu samar a Jamus da kuma a cikin da yawa wasu manyan kasashe. Matsalar da yake a ɓõye, a cikin m ci gaban da EU kasashe mambobin kungiyar. Northern yankuna yau kawai mayar bayan wani dogon stagnation.

A fall na Yuro a sakamakon yi Mario Dragi

Mario Draghi a cikin kalamai na karshe bazara ya sha bayyana cewa ya yi niyyar ya dauki dukan matakan rage jama'a bashi. Wannan ba zai iya amma shafi Yuro. Agency wakilan Morgan Stanley ce cewa korau Trend za a goyan bayan wani kuma zumunta gaskiya na Turai ciniki zone, kazalika da wanzuwar deflationary matsin lamba. Yana rubuta wani outflow na fayil-type zuba jari, inda shi taka rawar da Yuro kudin kudade.

EU dangantaka da Rasha

Shi ne ya kamata a lura da cewa da EU yana da wani dogara a kan gas shigo da daga Rasha, kazalika da shigo da na dukiya a cikin ƙasa na Rasha Federation. Kundin da gas shigo da kuma rage a yau dangane da takunkumi, wanda gabatar da wani mummunan tasiri a kan EU kasashe mambobin kungiyar. Duk da wannan Trend, da Yuro, bisa ga hasashen da manazarta na duniya na dogon lokaci ba zai yi girma. Masu zuba jari ba fatan karfafa Turai kudin. Kamar yadda masana suka ce, "dollar zamanin ne a cike lilo." Abinda ya rage shine fatan - wannan ya takaita ayyuka na gwamnatin Amurka, wadda za ta ci gaba da kudi na kasa kudin a wani matakin.

A la'akari da tambaya na abin da zai faru da Yuro a nan gaba, kwararru da yawa suna kokarin gabatar a kan aiwatar mana da halin da ake ciki tare da Girka. Manazarta duniya dillancin Stratfor la'akari kawai biyu zabin domin kara aukuwa:

• Girka na iya barin Yuro yankin da kuma Jamus za su gabatar da Jamusanci mark. Wannan shi ne daya daga cikin mafi korau kintace ga EU, wanda zai aiko da wani biyu daga "EUR / USD" da nisa kudancin yin iyo. To, akwai hadarin cikakken auka na Turai kudin.
• Zabi na biyu - a ci gaba da cinikayya tare da kasar Girka, da Jamus. Taimakon kudi da za a bayar ga States, ba gurgunta tattalin arzikin duniya na EU, amma kawai rage gudu da m taki na girma cewa ba zai zama catastrophic taron.

"Daya dollar - daya Yuro" kamar yadda daya daga cikin madadin tatsuniyoyinsu

Idan akai la'akari da tambaya na abin da zai faru da Yuro a cikin gaba 'yan shekaru, manazarta na Goldman bayyana musayar kudi a matakin US $ 0.9 = 1 Yuro ta 2017. Masana sun kada su gushe ba magana game da barazana da deflation da kuma na kusan sifili, da kuma a wasu wurare da kuma mummunan habakar tattalin arziki. Tun farkon 2015 da Turai kasa kudin fadi 2.6% a kan ago na 9 kasashen. Don parity da dollar zauna mun gwada takaice, kawai game da 15%.

Yana da daraja ambata cewa Yuro riga saukar a kan wannan matakin a matsayin US kudin a 2012. A karshen shekarar 2014, da Yuro ya rasa kusan 12% na da darajar. A cewar Chris Iggo, shugaban ajali albashi kamfanin AXA Investment Management, parity za a iya cimma, idan manufofin kudi na Fed da ECB kasance canzawa. Mun ambaci cewa a cikin kaka na shekarar 2014, ECB saukar da kudi a kan adibas da 0.2%. Makamantan bayanai Posts Draghi saya Turai sarki shaidu da kuma rike na gaba mataki na siyasa na gwada yawa easing gani a yau a cikin EUR / USD drop format.

wucin gadi sabuntawa

Yau pullback Yuro zuwa arewa - shi ne mai kai tsaye sakamako na ayyuka dauka da ECB a karshen 2014. Muna magana ne game rage sha'awa kudi daga 0,15% zuwa 0.05% da kuma raguwa a cikin sha'awa rates a kan adibas, ambata a baya. Wadannan tarihi low Figures ga Yuro zone kara kuzari bankuna rayayye da rancen zuwa na ainihi, maimakon kudi kansu. Kawai watanni shida daga baya, bayan da tallafi na m matakan na ECB, da Turai tattalin arzikin ya fara mai da hankali. Ka tuna cewa saukarwa ba wanda ya gane rates. Irin wannan labari da jũna yiwu kawai shida tattalin arziki hira hamsin da bakwai.

Yuro da kuma Rasha na kasa kudin

Duk da cewa da Yuro kan dollar Outlook ya rage korau, da rabo daga cikin ruble / Yuro zai zama quite kishiyar. A Turai kudin da da ruble a cikin gajeren lokaci zai ci gaba da girma. A weakening na Turai tattalin arzikin kasar kan bango na Rasha shi ne a cikin wani sosai m matsayi. A halin da ake ciki ne ya sa ta events faruwa a duniya kasuwar mai. A layi daya da fall a man farashin zai tashi da Yuro. Duk da yanzu Yunƙurin a farashin man, masana suna har yanzu jiran zuriya na farashin man fetur har zuwa Janairu low, don haka ba za ka iya ƙidaya a kan na biyu Jump na Yuro girma a Rasha. Kada ka manta da cewa da aka yi hasashen ne a hasashen, kuma da alama shi ne babban cewa ruble zai fara karfafa matsayi.

Abin da zai zama Farashin na Yuro, bisa ga manazarta na duniya mafi kyau?

Gwani, ra'ayin da aka sãɓã wa jũna a game da Yuro, da kuma halin da kaffa. Deutsche Bank ya yi ĩmãni da fadowa kasa parity da kuma dakatar da shakka a $ 0,95 da Yuro ta karshen shekara ta 2017. Forecast George Saravelos marubucin Saide daga gaskiyar cewa a cikin 2000 da Yuro / dollar ciniki a 0,8300. Saboda da kalaman tsarin da hawa da sauka a kan jinkiri na bakwai zuwa shekaru tara, Deutsche Bank masana ba ga wani abu catastrophic halin da ake ciki.

Birtaniya banki HSBC ba wani dan kadan daban-daban na gaba na Yuro. kudi ma'aikata, masana ne m cewa nan da karshen shekarar 2015, da Yuro da dollar zai yi kasuwanci a 1.19. Barclays wakilan falala a kansu da matakin 1.1, wanda za a iya gani a yau, amma Morgan Stanley masana suna karkata zuwa gane 1.14.

A lokacin, da wuya a ce, yadda za a nuna hali a nan gaba Yuro. The farashin yau ba stabilized, a gaskiya, kamar yadda ta EU tattalin arzikin bayan da rikicin shi ne ba kawai da karshen 2014, amma 2008-2009. Complex gaskiyane halin da ake ciki ba ya tsoma baki imani da yawa manazarta a wani sosai alamar rahama nan gaba na Turai monetary naúrar. Ya zauna a gani abin da zai faru da Yuro kara.