Kitchin sake zagayowar. Short-lokaci tattalin arziki hawan keke. Juglar sake zagayowar. Kuznets sake zagayowar

A tattalin arziki da sake zagayowar - mai shakka darajar da} asashensu, a cikin dogon lokaci. Wannan rage ko karuwa a GDP ake dangantawa da mataki na ci gaba. Akwai da dama iri irin oscillations, abin da ya bambanta a cikin tsawon lokaci. Mafi gajere - Kitchin sake zagayowar, tsowon lokacin da - 3-5 shekaru. Sauran tattalin arziki sun kuma yi karatu da tambaya na babban samar da hawa da sauka. Kudi ne kuma hawan keke Juglar, Kuznets da Kondratiev.

key sharuddan

A cikin shakka daga ta ci gaba, a matsayin tattalin arzikin ne a saurin ci gaban zamani da kuma stagnation. Kitchin sake zagayowar bayyana gajere hawa da sauka. Kondratieff kalaman da aka rufe rabin karni canji. A ra'ayi na kasuwanci sake zagayowar a wani m ji na nufin wani lokaci wanda qunshi daya kawai tsawon Yunƙurin kuma fall, kai juna. Wadannan matakai biyu suke da muhimmanci. An nuna alama na farkon da ƙarshen sake zagayowar ne da yawan girma na real} asashensu. Duk da yake sau da yawa wadannan hawa da sauka a cikin harkokin kasuwanci ne quite unpredictable.

Tarihi da binciken

A ra'ayi na tattalin arziki da sake zagayowar aka hana ta wakilan da na gargajiya makaranta. Su zama, a yi, suna bayyana da yaƙe-yaƙe da rikice-rikice. Su na farko bincika ta Sismondi. Aikinsa An kishin tsoro a 1825 a Ingila, wanda shi ne na farko tattalin arziki da rikicin ya faru a peacetime. Sismondi da takwaransa Robert Owen ya kira shi da hanyar overproduction da underconsumption, ya sa ta hanyar disparities a rarraba kudin shiga tsakanin al'ummar jihar. Sun kasance a cikin ni'imar jihar baki a cikin tattalin arzikin da gurguzanci. A tsarar masana kimiyya, da aikin da aka ba nan da nan m. Duk da haka, a kan ra'ayin cewa a karkashin-amfani ne da hanyar crises, to, a can za a gina wani sananne Keynesian makaranta. Sismondi ka'idar da aka ɓullo da Charles Dunoyer. Ya sa a gaba manufar m hawan keke. Karl Marx ga lokaci-lokaci crises a matsayin babban matsala na wani jari hujja jama'a da annabta da juyin juya halin kwaminisancin. Genri Dzhordzh kira hasashe da ƙasar babban dalilin recessions da shawarar da gabatarwar guda haraji a kan samar factor.

iri da hawan keke

A 1860, Faransa tattalin arziki Klement Zhyuglyar farko tsare da tattalin arziki da hawa da sauka tare da wani mita na 7-11 shekaru. Yozef Shumpeter jãyayya da cewa sun kunshi matakai huɗu:

• Fadada. Akwai wani karuwa a samar da kundin, tanã fita farashin, amfani rates fada.
• Rikicin. A wannan mataki, marmashe da stock mu'amala, da kuma da yawa harkokin kasuwanci da kuma kamfanoni suna faruwa fatara.
• Koma bayan tattalin arziki. Farashin da kuma samar da kundin ci gaba da fada da kuma amfani rates, da bambanci, suna girma.
• Farfadowa da na'ura. Exchange sake fara aiki ta hanyar farashin da kuma albashi fall.

Schumpeter nasaba da tattalin arziki maida tare da ci gaban da samar da ya dace, da amincewa a nan gaba masu amfani da tara bukatar da farashin. A tsakiyar karni XX, ya kawo shawara mai typology na hawan keke domin su duration. Daga cikin su:

• Kitchin sake zagayowar. Yana daukan 3 zuwa shekaru 5.
• Juglar sake zagayowar. Its duration - 7-11 shekaru.
• Kuznets sake zagayowar. An hade da zuba jari a ababen more rayuwa. Yana daukan 15 zuwa shekaru 25.
• Kondrat'eva kalaman ko dogon aiwatar sake zagayowar. Yana daukan daga 45 zuwa shekaru 60.

Yau, sha'awa cikin hawan keke rage dan kadan. Wannan shi ne saboda gaskiyar cewa zamani macroeconomics ba ya goyon bayan ra'ayin na yau da kullum a lokaci-lokaci oscillations.

Kitchin sake zagayowar

Yana daukan game da 40 months. Wadannan gajere hawa da sauka da aka farko bincika da Joseph Kitchin a lokacin da 1920. Its hanyar bincike da wucin gadi fada a cikin motsi na bayanai da kai ga jinkirta yanke shawara kamfanonin. Kamfanonin amsa don inganta kasuwanci halin da ake ciki ta kara samar. Wannan results a cika yin amfani da aiki da kuma babban birnin kasar. A sakamakon haka, bayan wani lokaci, da kasuwar ta wãyi malale, lokacin da kaya. Su quality tabarbarewa.Idan saboda da dokar Ka ce. Bukatar da dama, farashin - wannan kaya fara shirga up a warehouses. Bayan wani lokaci, kamfanin ya fara rage samar. Kuma wuce Kitchin sake zagayowar.

Sanadin da kuma sakamakon

Kitchin tattalin arziki hawan keke hade da rashin yiwuwar instantaneous kima na kasuwar yanayi. Kamfanonin bukatar yayin da ya fara kara samar, da kuma yanke shawarar ko rage ƙaran. Bata lokaci ne saboda gaskiyar cewa ma'aikata ba su nan da nan gane cewa Marinjãyi a yanzu a kasuwa - wadata ko bukatar. Sai suka bukatar ma duba bayani. Yana riqe da kuma aiwatar da mafita a yi. Ba haka sauki nan da nan sami sabon ma'aikata ko sa kashe tsohon su. Saboda haka, gajere Kitchin sake zagayowar hade tare da wani bata lokaci ba a cikin tarin da kuma aiki na bayanai.

Yozef Kitchin: Summary

Shi ne mai Birtaniya gwani a fagen statistics da kuma kasuwa. Yozef Kitchin yi aiki a karafa masana'antu a Afrika ta Kudu. A shekarar 1923 ya gudanar da wani binciken na gajere kasuwanci hawan keke a United Kingdom da kuma Amurka a lokacin daga 1890 zuwa 1922. Su duration ya game shekaru 40 da haihuwa. A sakamakon bincikensa, ya kayyade aikin mai taken "Inji kuma yayi a tattalin arziki da dalilai." Marubucin ya bayyana gaban irin wannan vibrations m halayen da jari hujja yanayin samar da lokaci lags a watsa bayanai da ke shafar aiwatar da yanke shawara kamfanonin. A wasu kalmomin, da Kitchin sake zagayowar ne halin da tsari na samar da kayayyaki ta Enterprises cikin sharuddan da bukatar a kasuwa.

A lokacin na 7-11 shekaru

Juglar sake zagayowar ne biyu sau fiye Kitchin. Amma ta zama masanin kimiyya kafa da baya a 1862. Daga cikin haddasawa gano hawa da sauka Juglar kira canji a zuba jari a cikin gyarawa dukiya, ba kawai da matakin na aiki. A 2010, wani binciken yin amfani da na bincike ya tabbatar da wanzuwar irin hawan keke a cikin muhimmancin duniya ta} asashensu.

Kuznets sake zagayowar

Wannan oscillation Hasashen. Suna farko gudanar da bincike Simon Kuznets a cikin 1930s. Sun riƙi game 15-25 shekaru. Dalilin wannan cyclical marubucin ya kira alƙaluma tafiyar matakai. Ya kyan gani, da ambaliya da rani, da kuma related yi booms. Smith kuma halin su a matsayin kayayyakin zuba jari hawan keke. Wasu zamani tattalin arziki danganta data hawan keke tare da 18-shekara hawa da sauka a cikin darajar a cikin ƙasa kamar yadda wani factor na samarwa. Fitarwa da suka gani gabatarwar musamman haraji. Duk da haka, Fred Harrison ya yi imanin cewa shi ba ya taimaka ko da magance cyclicality. A shekarar 1968, Hauri soki nazarin Kuznets. Ya bayar da hujjar cewa ba daidai ba data da aka bincikar. Duk da haka, Smith ya bayyana cewa, hawan keke gano su za a iya gani a cikin ci gaban da duniya} asashensu da kuma ba tare da yin amfani da tace ƙirƙira su.

bincike Kondratieff

Mafi tsawo kasuwanci hawan keke da duration na 45-60 shekaru. Sanannun Soviet tattalin arziki Kondratieff yi imani da cewa hawa da sauka shafi duk sassa na tattalin arziki. Ya mayar da hankali a kan farashin, amfani rates. Kowane sake zagayowar Kondratiev bambanta hudu, saukarwa. Babban index, wanda ya yi karatu, ya samar cikin sharuddan darajar. Don kwanan wata, akwai biyar dogon tãguwar ruwa:

• Daga 1890 zuwa 1850, saboda da bayyanar da tururi engine da kuma farkon tartsatsi amfani da auduga.
• Daga 1850 zuwa 1900. Babban engine karfe dogo da karfe samar.
• Daga 1900 zuwa 1950 alaka da wutar lantarki rarraba da kuma ci gaban da sinadaran masana'antu.
• Daga 1950 zuwa 1990 sassa zama propulsive magunguna da kuma motoci.
• New kalaman hade da bayanai da kuma sadarwa da fasaha a matsayin engine na ci gaba.

Bugu da kari ga fasaha bayani, wasu masana kimiyya sun nasaba dogon Kondratieff hawan keke tare da alƙaluma da canji, hasashe da ƙasa, kuma ya bashi deflation. Akwai da dama zamani versions ka'idar Soviet tattalin arziki. Su za a iya raba kungiyoyin biyu. A farko mayar da hankali a kan canji a fasaha. Na biyu nazarin bashi sake zagayowar. Duk da haka, da yawa tattalin arziki ba su yarda da ka'idar Kondratieff dogon tãguwar ruwa. Ko da more rigima ne a kusa da abin da shekaru dauke farkon kowane sake zagayowar. Farko na rikicin kudi na duniya ya yi daidai da isasshen a ka'idar Kondratieff, sigina farkon tsawon ƙi.