Volatility - menene wannan? wani zaɓi volatility

Da samuwar nasara ciniki ya kasance da wuya sosai, sabili da haka, kafin su sami wani barga samun kudin shiga daga kudin hasashe yana bukatar fiye da shekara guda na kwarewa. A ci gaba da kudi kasuwanni - shi ne gabatarwar zuwa macroeconomics, nazarin fasaha bincike da kuma aiki a kan kanka. Duk da haka, mafi muhimmanci shi ne samar da wani ciniki dabarun da za su yi aiki ba a 100%, idan ciniki bai sani ba yadda za a bincika da kuma amfani da volatility.

Mene ne volatility

Mastering ciniki, kana neman amsoshin tambayoyi da yawa, daga cikinsu an daure su da wani tushe: "volatility - abin da wannan yake?" Yana da kayyade yawan abubuwa da cewa farashin ya wuce don wani lokaci. Alal misali, wata rana da zance EUR / USD iya tashi ko fall ta 80-100 maki - cewa shi ne girman ta volatility. Da yake a cikin kasuwar, shi ne ba abin mamaki ba a cikin irin wannan harkar: canji na kudin biyu a 140 da maki - wani canji a cikin Yuro rates kan dollar by 1%.

The shakka na bincikar kudi kayan aiki - wannan volatility, da definition wanda yana da muhimmanci ga nasara ciniki. Idan wannan rabo ne m, mai ciniki yana bukatar fahimtar cewa yiwuwar samun riba ƙaruwa daidai da hadarin. A baya halin da ake ciki - a lokacin da jadawali akwai lebur, da kuma volatility na 5-15 maki. A irin wannan yanayi, yin aiki kage scalpers. A matsakaici da kuma babban volatility dace don zana Trend Lines kuma yi kintace kudi kida farashin ƙungiyoyi.

Abin da rinjayar da volatility

farashin volatility dabam domin dalilai da dama:

• Aiki na kasuwa mahalarta. Sharp farashin hawa da sauka faru ne lokacin da masu saye da masu sayarwa suna fafitikar a magance. Saboda haka, tashin ko fadowa Trend, dangane da wanda ya lashe a wannan gwagwarmaya.
• The fitarwa na macroeconomic statistics. A tattalin arziki kalandar ƙunshi mafi muhimmanci tattalin arziki events na duk raya ƙasashe: fitarwa na samar da bayanai, da aiki kasuwa, canje-canje a cikin sha'awa rates. Ba kamar real Manuniya na kimanta haddasawa m dauki na yan kasuwa, wanda kuɓutar da kara volatility.
• Trading zaman. Mai ma'amaloli an kammala a farkon rabin yini, a lokacin da London Stock Exchange ne bude - a cikin wannan lokaci, akwai a kalla volatility na fi kudi kida. A Amurka ciniki zaman yan kasuwa ne kasa aiki idan akwai wani macroeconomic labarai. A lokacin da Asiya da Pacific zaman volatility yakan a kan kudin da nau'i-nau'i, a cikin abin da akwai da Japan yen, da Ostiraliya da kuma New Zealand dollar.
• A janar jihar na tattalin arziki. Dukan kasashe su hada kai da juna, wadda take kaiwa zuwa da tasiri a kan juna. Alal misali, ta hanyar zuba jari da kudi a Australia dollar, ka tuna cewa yana da matukar tasirantuwa ga korau canje-canje a cikin tattalin arzikin Sin, kamar yadda wadannan kasashen biyu suna kusa abokan ,. Gubar zuwa fall na New Zealand dollar ne wani fari, kamar yadda tattalin arzikin jihar ta dogara ne a kan sayar da kayayyakin gona. Saboda haka, volatility na kudin da aka ƙaddara da muhimman hakkokin dabarun da rufe duk: sakamakon tattaunawar da shugabannin jihohi, minti na tarurruka na bankunan tsakiya, da rikicin a wani masana'antu, bala'o'i da sauransu.

Features volatility

Don gina wani cin nasara ciniki dabarun kamata daki-daki, ga fahimta da manufar "volatility". Shi ne abin da shi ne, abin da halaye yana. Da fari dai, shi ne muhimmi dawwamar - mafi yawan volatility ba ya canja na dogon lokaci, har can ne, haƙĩƙa, wani gagarumin tattalin arziki taron. Saboda haka, nazarin da kalanda barin statistics, za mu iya ɗauka cewa farashin hawa da sauka EUR / USD biyu za su canza ta da iyaka kafin Nonfarm payrolls.

Abu na biyu, maras tabbas cyclic - swings maye gurbin bai isa a kula farashin canje-canje, bayan wanda sake bayyana surges lalacewa ta hanyar wasu muhimman hakkokin dalilai. Na uku, volatility na wani zaɓi ko wani kudin biyu sau da yawa ya kan damu talakawan. Alal misali, idan USD / JPY ne na hali izinin rate 80 maki, wannan darajar da shi zai dawo kowane lokaci bayan kai sabon matuƙa.

volatility darajar

Farga volatility - shi ne da kuma yadda za a amfani da shi a cikin su ciniki, da ciniki iya inganta su chances na yin wani riba, kamar yadda zai zama mafi m zuwa zabi na kasuwa shigarwa batu. Volatility taimaka lissafi da matakin na hadarin na samarwa ma'amala, kamar yadda ka bukatar ganin m iyakoki na yanzu farashin motsi. Wannan bada bayyananne fahimtar inda tsaya m domin, da kuma inda matsayi na rufe tare da riba.

The ciniki dole ne ka sani cewa mafi maras tabbas kudi kida da aka bã mafi damar aikatãwa, duk da haka, da kasada a cikin irin wannan ma'amaloli aka muhimmanci karu. Sababbin mafi zabi "m" kudin biyu don koyon yadda za su bincika da canje-canje a volatility, tace fitar da kasuwar amo da ƙarya sakonni, to, shi ne riga yiwu su sa ka ciniki mafi m dabara.

Da kansa lissafi volatility

volatility lissafi ne mai sauqi qwarai, dubi shi a matsayin misali. Dan kasuwa, Trading ciki-rana, dole ne ya san yadda da yawa abubuwa da farashin zai iya tafi da sa'a guda, kuma kowace rana. Don wannan karshen, shi wajibi ne don nazarin tarihi na hali ne dauke da wani kudi da makami. Don rage wuya da hanya, da ya bude mako-mako ginshiƙi kuma shi ne bambanci tsakanin High kuma Low dabi'u na karshe rufaffiyar kyandirori. Wannan darajar wajibi ne a raba ta 5, domin sanin yawan abubuwa da cewa farashin ya rinjaya a rana daya. Don ganin hourly volatility, da darajar da aka raba ta 120 (5 * 24).

Idan wani mai ciniki yana faruwa ne a yi bikin wannan wannan hasashen, sa'an nan da sannu zai iya ganin wasu canje-canje a cikin abin kwaikwaya daga volatility domin sanin da misali talakawan kewayon farashin motsi ga amfani da kudi da makami, cewa zai ƙwarai sauƙaƙe ta aiki, da kuma zai taimaka wajen inganta ciniki dabarun.

volatility Manuniya

Manuniya ga kayyade ƙarfin volatility kuma akwai misali a cikin m. A mafi sauki wani zaɓi - shi ne karuwa da sauri motsi Averages. The m tafi daga kyandirori ne line, da girma da volatility na kudin biyu. Gasar dokoki wani motsi talakawan Bollinger. Wannan nuna alama volatility wakiltar wasu Lines gabatowa, idan exponent ne low kuma diverging tare da kara da kewayon farashin hawa da sauka.

The uku zaɓi na kirga volatility - shi ne ATR, wanda shi ne ya gina your siffarsa ta amfani da farashin bambancin (yanzu matsakaicin kuma m). A ya fi girma da lambar, da karfi volatility. A jadawali nuna ATR ba Trend, da kuma karuwa ko karu a cikin kudi na canji na farashin. Za ka iya saita kowanne daga cikin wadannan Manuniya, bisa laákari da dalilai da bincikar data kasance mafi m.

Amfani da volatility

Don amfãne daga cikin kudi kasuwanni, yana da muhimmanci a daidai amfani da canji a volatility. Kara shi qara ba kawai m riba, amma kuma hadari. Ga sabon shiga da shi ne mafi kyau a zabi kudin nau'i-nau'i wanda jadawalai ba kwatanta karu, shakka darkãke saba yan kasuwa daga kasuwar. Don daidai amfani da volatility, kana bukatar ka san da wadannan:

• Idan jadawali an kiyaye lebur, da kuma cikin kewayon farashin hawa da sauka ga wani dogon lokaci ya kasance iri guda, sa'an nan ba za mu iya sa ran cewa, a nan gaba volatility Yunƙurin gunaguni ƙwarai. Bitar da tattalin arziki da kalanda don kafa a lokacin da umarni a dace hanya.
• A tsarin ciniki kamata ya yi la'akari da canje-canje a cikin hali na kudi da makami - "Tsaya Loss" ya kamata a sanya a waje da amo yankin da kuma shan la'akari da yiwu karuwa a volatility - wannan zai kawar da yiwuwar cewa ku kawai "buga fitar da" na kasuwar. Alal misali, sayar da EUR kan USD, a hankali zabi da matakin a wanda aka located a m domin - a cikin kewayon 80 da maki. Idan farashin a lokacin da London da kuma Amurka zaman ƙara ko rage ta mai ba adadin da maki, sa'an nan da rana ne ba shi daraja bude wani matsayi. Har ila yau tuna cewa yuwuwar riba ya kamata a kalla sau 2 more hasarori.
• Tare da babban volatility rage girma na bude deals - ba hadarin your babban birnin kasar unnecessarily.

Daidaitawa da ciniki dabarun dangane da bayanai samu, za ka iya tace fitar da mafi ƙarya sakonni da kuma samun gaske mai kyau kasuwar shigarwa batu. Mamaki: "volatility - shi ne cewa" kada ka kasance gamsu da daya kawai definition na lokaci. A ikon bincika shi da kuma amfani da su cinikayya - da key to ya karu da kudaden shiga daga kudi kasuwanni.